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Tesla, once the cornerstone of Musk's business empire, has now been eclipsed by SpaceX. The company is undergoing a sweeping transformation, shifting its strategic focus towards autonomous driving, humanoid robots, and driverless mobility solutions, while significantly decelerating the pace of traditional vehicle product updates and halting the expansion of its model lineup. This strategic pivot has opened up a valuable window of opportunity for domestic automakers, yet it also poses long-term risks of a widening technological gap.

Published by Heyan Yueche Studio

Written by Zhang Dachuan

Edited by He Zi

Full text: 3,095 characters

Reading time: 5 minutes

Musk, who helms both Tesla and SpaceX, is now favoring SpaceX with his attention and resources.

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) made its debut on the Nasdaq, raising a staggering $750 billion in the largest global initial public offering (IPO) ever recorded. Its stock soared by 19.22% on the first trading day, valuing the company at over $2.11 trillion. This catapulted Musk's net worth beyond $1.3 trillion, making him the world's first trillionaire.

△ With SpaceX's IPO, Tesla is no longer the primary asset underpinning Musk's wealth.

Over the past three years, Musk's business ventures have expanded across various fronts: SpaceX achieved a peak valuation of $2.28 trillion, with its Falcon 9 rocket being reused over 200 times and Starlink generating $11.3 billion in annual revenue and $4.4 billion in net profit. Neuralink is valued at $5 billion, with dual production lines for its humanoid robot Optimus now in operation. Tesla Energy reported $12.8 billion in revenue in 2025, with 46.7 GWh of installations. Its in-house Dojo chips supply AI computing power across the group, while external battery-powered vehicle partnerships generated nearly $9 billion in revenue. Amid this structural transformation, Tesla's share of Musk's wealth has steadily declined: from 55% of his total assets in 2023 to just under 25% ($320 billion) in 2026, while SpaceX's equity value neared $960 billion. Tesla is no longer the bedrock of Musk's fortune.

Tesla's EV Product Advantage Diminishes

Setting aside the Cybertruck—still generating hype but plagued by delivery delays—Tesla's global mainstream market offerings now rely solely on the Model 3 and Model Y. The high-end Model S and Model X have ceased planned large-scale production iterations, with North American factories drastically cutting output to repurpose facilities for Optimus humanoid robot production lines. In 2024, Tesla delivered just 12,700 Model S and Model X units in North America, down nearly 89% from the 2021 peak of 112,000, effectively exiting the mainstream luxury large electric sedan segment. The new Roadster, initially slated for 2020 mass production, has been repeatedly delayed, with the latest launch pushed to late 2026—over nine years after its debut. Its production plan has undergone multiple revisions, with core specifications in flux, leaving the sports car market strategy unresolved.

△ The new Roadster, initially slated for 2020 mass production, has faced repeated delays.

The two volume models are aging: the Model 3 launched in March 2016 and entered production in 2017, reaching its eighth year by 2025; the Model Y debuted in March 2019 and began mass production in 2020, making it six years old by 2025. Both have seen only minor mid-cycle updates and detail tweaks, never undergoing full platform or body style overhauls.

In contrast, Chinese new forces typically achieve major upgrades every 18–24 months and full model replacements every 3–4 years. NIO's ES series, Li Auto's L series, and XPeng's G series nearly annually refresh cabin hardware, chassis architecture, and interior/exterior design. Even conservative European luxury brands have launched models rivaling Tesla in product strength, with local performance surpassing it: the Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV, BMW iX, and Audi Q8 e-tron outperform in interior materials, air suspension tuning, rear-seat comfort, and NVH quietness; the Volkswagen ID.7 differentiates through handling stability and localized infotainment; the Porsche Taycan maintains an edge in powertrain performance and track handling over Tesla's offerings at similar price points.

△ European luxury brands have launched models that rival Tesla in product strength, with local performance surpassing it.

Tesla's hardware lead has narrowed sharply: its two mainstay models rely on outdated platforms and chassis, lag in onboard chip and infotainment screen upgrades, and face persistent criticism for seat comfort and interior fit-and-finish. Currently, Tesla relies solely on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system as a competitive edge. By 2025, FSD had over 2.3 million paid subscribers in North America, accumulating over 15 billion miles driven, maintaining its first-tier status in highway lane-changing and urban navigation. However, regulatory restrictions in the EU, China, and elsewhere prevent full deployment of its intelligent driving features. Judged by mechanical quality, cabin experience, design freshness, and localization, Tesla's current lineup no longer dominates the global BEV market as it did from 2019–2021, surviving only on autonomous tech and cost advantages.

△ Currently, Tesla relies solely on its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system as a competitive edge.

Cybercab: Tesla's New 'Ace'

With Model 3/Y iteration stalling and traditional EV advantages fading, the Cybercab has emerged as Tesla's core vehicle for transitioning from automaking to a global intelligent mobility operator—the reason it has paused conventional model development to focus on autonomous driving. Unlike conventional passenger EVs, the Cybercab adopts a steering wheel- and pedal-free native autonomous architecture designed for Robotaxi ride-sharing. Its minimalist structure, lightweight battery, and integrated manufacturing slash unit costs below $30,000, while vehicle utilization soars from under 5% for private cars to 70%, slashing per-mile costs and offering strong commercialization potential.

△ The Cybercab has become Tesla's core vehicle for transitioning from automaking to a global intelligent mobility operator.

Technologically, the Cybercab is deeply aligned with Tesla's pure-vision FSD system, serving as a key platform for algorithm scaling and data loop closure. Tesla has redirected R&D, production line, and computing resources from traditional model updates to full autonomous driving iteration, forging an exclusive tech barrier through its native in-house approach—distinct from Waymo's retrofitted vehicles or Chinese automakers' modified models.

Commercially, the Cybercab revolutionizes Tesla's profit model, breaking free from the one-time car sale model to establish a recurring, diversified cash flow: 'vehicle sales + Tesla Network ride commission + FSD software subscription.' Owners can join Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing platform, with the company taking a 25–30% cut, transforming vehicles into income-generating assets.

Under its long-term plan, Tesla aims to deploy a global fleet of 10 million autonomous vehicles, making intelligent mobility services a second growth engine on par with its automotive business to counter pricing pressures and slowing growth in the traditional EV market. Over time, the Cybercab will reshape urban mobility, reduce private car ownership demand, and synergize with Optimus humanoid robots to solidify Tesla's lead in general AI and unmanned logistics. If executed, the Cybercab will enable Tesla to leapfrog traditional EV rivals through the Robotaxi blue ocean and reclaim its position at the forefront of global intelligent mobility.

△ The Cybercab will synergize with Optimus humanoid robots to solidify Tesla's lead in general AI and unmanned logistics.

Impact of Tesla's Strategic Shift on Chinese Automakers

Tesla has sharply redirected over 70% of its R&D budget toward FSD, Optimus, and Robotaxi, away from traditional vehicle development. The affordable Model 2 project is on hold, flagship Model S/X production has contracted, and next-gen model launches keep delaying, leaving the global volume market dependent on the aging Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla's vehicle iteration pace has slowed markedly.

This strategic reallocation creates a rare short-term window for domestic automakers. In the 100,000–200,000 yuan ($13,800–27,600) entry-level segment, the absence of Tesla's affordable model reduces direct competition, while the lack of new foreign models in the 250,000+ yuan ($34,500+) premium segment eases pressure on brands like BYD, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and NIO to capture market share and move upscale. Meanwhile, industry-wide price wars ease temporarily, allowing domestic players to reinvest in localized autonomous driving, high-voltage BEV platforms, and charging networks. Their overseas expansion into mid-to-low-end markets also faces less resistance.

△ Domestic and global automakers will enjoy a golden period as Tesla's EV competitiveness declines.

However, long-term risks loom. By slowing vehicle hardware updates, Tesla is concentrating resources on FSD and Robotaxi—a gamble that, if successful, could leave it with insurmountable software and operational advantages. Meanwhile, without Tesla's 'tech disruptor' pressure, domestic automakers risk slipping into a feature-stacking, price-cutting trap. With overseas trade barriers rising and EV export growth slowing, domestic market competition will intensify. For Chinese automakers, the next 3–5 years are critical. They must scale up rapidly, solidify core technologies, globalize operations, and preemptively enter intelligent driving services and autonomous mobility to avoid being outpaced by Tesla's tech-driven ecosystem.

△ Tesla has long targeted the FSD-based Robotaxi segment.

Commentary

Tesla is not 'coasting' but executing a strategic pivot—sacrificing short-term hardware leadership for long-term software and ecosystem dominance. For Chinese automakers, this 3–5-year window offers a chance to scale, upgrade brands, and refine technology. If they remain stuck in hardware arms races and price wars without building capabilities in autonomous driving, software services, and unmanned mobility, they risk a systemic shock once Tesla's FSD and Robotaxi models mature, shifting competition from products to ecosystems.

(This article is original to Heyan Yueche. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.)