Shanghai has made a significant advancement in driverless taxi (Robotaxi) services.

On July 26, at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference's AI Empowering Autonomous Driving Innovation and Development Forum, Shanghai officially issued a new batch of intelligent connected vehicle demonstration operation licenses to eight enterprises.

These enterprises include Baidu Zhixing, Dazhong Transportation (Group), Shanghai SAIC Mobility (a subsidiary of SAIC Motor), Shanghai Qiangsheng Taxi (including the joint venture of IM Motors and Enjoy Travel), SAIC Mobility Intelligent Technology, Pony.ai (Pony Intelligence), Shanghai Jinjiang Taxi (including the joint venture of WeRide and Chery Automobile), and Shanghai Youdao Zhitu (a subsidiary of SAIC Motor).

More importantly, this batch of licenses represents a substantial step forward. Some enterprises are now authorized to conduct not only driverless but fully autonomous operations, with the ability to charge fares.

Additionally, with the opening of the third batch of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area, the total mileage of open test roads in Shanghai has surpassed 2,700 kilometers, encompassing central urban areas, including parts of the inner ring road.

This signifies increased confidence from officials and the industry in autonomous driving technology. Approved enterprises such as IM Motors, Luobo Kuaipao, Pony.ai, and WeRide now have more room to test, refine, and expand their autonomous driving services.

01

Eight Licenses, Multiple Collaborations

The licenses issued by Shanghai this time cover multiple entities, some of which are joint ventures.

Local giant SAIC Motor is heavily involved.

Not only did its subsidiaries Shanghai SAIC Mobility, SAIC Mobility Intelligent Technology, and Shanghai Youdao Zhitu directly obtain licenses for both passenger and commercial vehicles, but SAIC Motor's high-end new energy brand IM Motors, in collaboration with Enjoy Travel and Qiangsheng Taxi, formed a joint venture and also secured a demonstration operation license.

Concurrently with obtaining the license, IM Motors, along with Enjoy Travel and SAIC Mobility Intelligent Technology, announced the launch of trial operations for the L4-level Robotaxi route from Shanghai International Tourism and Resorts Zone to Pudong International Airport, which will soon be open to the public.

IM Motors' Robotaxi

Moreover, two renowned domestic players in driverless technology, Pony.ai and WeRide, also received licenses.

Pony.ai's subsidiary, Pony.ai Mobility, obtained a license separately. According to Pony.ai, this license authorizes fully autonomous commercial operations.

Last year, also at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Pony.ai obtained the first batch of demonstration application licenses for intelligent connected vehicles in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. This new license signifies that Pony.ai can now conduct commercial operations in Shanghai. Pony.ai will collaborate with Jinjiang Taxi, a subsidiary of Shanghai Jinjiang Group, to gradually open autonomous driving services to the public, starting from the core areas of Jinqiao and Huamu in Pudong.

To date, Pony.ai has established an autonomous driving commercialization network in China's four major first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen).

Another prominent Robotaxi enterprise, WeRide, has also secured a license in partnership with Chery Automobile and Jinjiang Taxi.

Robotaxi based on Chery's Star Age model, jointly developed by WeRide and Chery

However, the three joint ventures that received demonstration application licenses cannot charge fares for the time being.

Entering Shanghai marks the official launch of WeRide's Robotaxi service in its 10th city globally. Previously, WeRide had already achieved Robotaxi operations or tests in nine cities across three countries, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Erdos, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Riyadh, and Zurich, with over 2,000 days of safe operations.

02

When Will Robotaxi Become Self-Sustaining?

With the rapid advancement of AI in the past two to three years and the evolution of Robotaxi technology, particularly Tesla's recent entry, the outlook for Robotaxi appears promising.

Not only in Chinese cities like Shanghai but also globally in places like Northern Europe, the Middle East, Singapore, South Korea, and the United States, veteran player Waymo is expanding its territory. Chinese players such as Luobo Kuaipao, WeRide, and Pony.ai are not only expanding domestically but also "going global" and collaborating with giants like UBER.

Furthermore, new players are planning to join, including Amazon's Zoox, UBER's recently partnered startup NURO, and Volkswagen.

However, the question remains: When will Robotaxi become self-sustaining?

Tesla has just launched its Robotaxi service, but Musk is known for painting grand visions. He told analysts, "By the end of next year, it will have a material impact on our finances." This implies that by then, Robotaxi will generate positive financial returns.

Yet, this assumption hinges on many conditions. For instance, he also estimates that by the end of this year, Tesla's Robotaxi may cover half of the US population.

He further estimates that the cost per mile of a specially designed Cybercab may be less than 30 cents, or even 25 cents. Moreover, if Tesla's robot Optimus is used for vehicle cleaning and maintenance, coupled with automatic charging, the cost of CyberCab will be very low.

Too many "ifs" remain.

What about the pioneer, Waymo?

The "veteran rookie" founded in 2009 and began operations in 2020 is still in the money-burning stage. Morgan Stanley predicts that Waymo may become profitable around 2030.

Waymo's comprehensive stack of sensing equipment and vehicle costs are obstacles to profitability

However, the possibility of profitability also involves many variables and choices. For example, Waymo hopes to generate revenue by licensing its autonomous driving technology to other players or partnering with operators like UBER to operate services, suggesting insufficient confidence in developing its own fleet operations.

Among Chinese players, analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) predict that Pony.ai may achieve net profit as early as 2029. For WeRide (whose business also includes simpler autonomous driving services such as autonomous sweeping vehicles), JPMorgan estimates profitability may be achieved in 2028.

While not immediate, the prospect of profitability in three to four years is encouraging. For Robotaxi to become profitable, it requires both technological maturity and significant cost reductions, as well as continuous scale expansion—which also depends on government permits and consumer and social acceptance.

Especially, past incidents have shown that there cannot be a series of malicious accidents. While the dawn of profitability is in sight, rushing to make profits may not be advisable. It is crucial to prioritize safety and reliability.

-END-