On the afternoon of September 7, Huawei launched the Mate XT 2 Extraordinary Master ( Extraordinary Master Mate XT 2) in Guangzhou, a second-generation triple-folding phone starting at 19,999 yuan. That same evening, Xiaomi unveiled the 18Fold in Beijing, its first mid-folding model starting at 10,999 yuan. In the early hours of September 10, Apple released the iPhone Duo, its first foldable iPhone.

Within 72 hours, the three major global smartphone players—Huawei, Xiaomi, and Apple—intensively released foldable products.

What does the foldable screen represent? Why are the three giants betting on it simultaneously? What changes are occurring in the global mobile phone market? How are Chinese brands seeking new growth spaces through overseas expansion? This is a strategic battle for the next decade of smartphones.

Figure: Timeline of foldable screen releases by the three giants in 72 hours (Source: Xiaoguang Think Tank)

The global smartphone market has bid farewell to rapid growth.

According to IDC data, global smartphone shipments in 2025 will reach 1.26 billion units, representing a mere 1.9% year-on-year increase.

Figure: 2025 Global Smartphone Shipment Rankings (Source: IDC, compiled by Xiaoguang Think Tank)

The situation is even more severe (severe) in 2026. Affected by the soaring prices of memory chips, global smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 2026 reached 277.5 million units, down 6.7% year-on-year. This marks a rare quarterly negative growth in recent years.

Figure: Global Smartphone Market Differentiation in Q2 2026 (Source: IDC, compiled by Xiaoguang Think Tank)

The memory chip crisis has torn the market apart: Premium brands have maintained growth through brand premium and cost-passing abilities, while mid-to-low-end brands face dual pressures of shrinking demand and rising costs.

Apple shipped 55.7 million units in Q2 2026, up 14.9% year-on-year, marking its strongest Q2 performance ever.

Samsung shipped 62.7 million units, up 8.1% year-on-year, reclaiming the top spot.

Xiaomi shipped 31.2 million units, down 26.4% year-on-year, facing significant pressure.

In a market characterized by Stock game ( Stock game , inventory competition), the innovation space for traditional bar-shaped phones is shrinking. Screen size, processor performance, and camera megapixels—these parameters' marginal improvements are increasingly failing to win over consumers.

Foldable screens offer a new possibility: By innovating in form factor, they create new product categories and price ranges, breaking through the growth bottleneck of the existing market.

This is the fundamental reason why the three giants are simultaneously betting on foldable screens—not because foldable screens are already a massive market, but because there are no new stories left to tell in the bar-shaped phone market.

Rewinding to 2025, the global smartphone market landscape was as follows:

Apple and Samsung formed the first tier, collectively holding nearly 40% of the market share. Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO formed the second tier, but their growth had significantly slowed.

Huawei's return is the biggest variable. In the first quarter of 2026, Huawei's market share in the Chinese smartphone market reached 22.6%, with shipments of 14.92 million units, up 19.4% year-on-year, reclaiming the top spot in the Chinese market.

However, Huawei's overseas market remains constrained—overseas sales account for only 6.6%. This means Huawei's growth primarily comes from the domestic market, which has a limited total volume.

For all players: The domestic market has peaked, and growth must come from two directions—product upgrades driven by foldable screens and spatial expansion through overseas markets.

The foldable screen market is approaching a turning point.

According to Omdia data, global foldable smartphone shipments in 2025 reached 18.2 million units, up 6% year-on-year—though growth has slowed. In the first half of 2026, shipments reached 5.1 million units, down 21.6% year-on-year, facing short-term pressure.

But the more critical long-term signal is that by the second quarter of 2026, cumulative global foldable smartphone shipments had surpassed 100 million units.

Figure: Global Foldable Screen Market Size and Competitive Landscape (Source: Omdia/Counterpoint, compiled by Xiaoguang Think Tank)

100 million units is a psychological milestone, indicating that foldable screens have transitioned from 'novelty products' to 'mature categories with a substantial user base.'

Counterpoint predicts that global foldable screen shipments will surge by 80% year-on-year in 2026, reaching 50 million units. The biggest variable is Apple—the iPhone Duo is expected to capture 28% of the foldable screen market share in its debut year.

Apple's entry will reshape the foldable screen market in three ways:

First, educating the market. Apple's brand influence will encourage more consumers to try foldable screens for the first time, expanding the overall category.

Second, raising the bar. Apple's involvement will accelerate the shift from 'parameter competition' to 'experience competition,' making software ecosystems and app adaptability more critical than hardware specifications.

Third, squeezing domestic brands. In China's foldable screen market, Huawei holds a 60% share, followed by Honor at 21%, OPPO at 7%, and Samsung at 4%. After Apple's entry, competition in the premium foldable screen market will intensify.

However, the real challenge for foldable screens lies not in technology but in pricing. Currently, mainstream foldable screens still cost over 10,000 yuan, limiting their adoption rate. The industry generally expects that by 2027, as costs decline and competition intensifies, foldable screen prices could drop to the 5,000-8,000 yuan range, triggering true mass adoption.

As the domestic market peaks, going overseas has become a must for Chinese smartphone manufacturers.

Data shows that overseas sales generally account for over 50% of domestic brands' total:

Figure: Regional Market Landscape of China's Top Five Smartphone Brands (Source: Omdia/Canalys, compiled by Xiaoguang Think Tank)

Xiaomi: 74% overseas, ranking top three in market share across 58 countries globally.

vivo: 56% overseas, leading India's market with a 25% share.

OPPO: 57% overseas, steadily expanding in Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Transsion: ~90% overseas, dominating Africa's market with a 51% share.

Honor: Overseas sales exceed 50% for the first time, with a 47% year-on-year increase in overseas shipments in 2025, making it the fastest-growing brand.

From a regional perspective:

Europe: Apple (30%) and Samsung (28%) form a duopoly, with Xiaomi firmly in third place at 17-20% and Honor rapidly breaking through in the premium segment.

India: vivo leads with 25%, followed by OPPO at 16%, with domestic brands dominating.

Southeast Asia: Chinese brands hold four of the top five spots, with Xiaomi at 17% (second), Transsion at 16% (third), OPPO at 14% (fourth), and vivo at 12% (fifth).

Africa: Transsion reigns supreme with a 51% share.

Latin America: Xiaomi ranks second with 17.5%, while Honor grows rapidly.

However, overseas expansion faces new challenges. In Q2 2026, India's market declined by 13% year-on-year, and Southeast Asia's market fell by 23% year-on-year—the lowest growth rates since 2014. Rising memory prices have dampened demand in emerging markets, forcing domestic brands to shift from 'market share expansion' to 'value enhancement.'

A clear trend is emerging: Chinese brands are transitioning from 'cost-effective overseas expansion' to 'premium overseas expansion.'

The Honor Magic6 Pro is priced at 1,299 euros overseas, directly competing with Apple and Samsung; Huawei's foldable screens command a premium of over 20% overseas; vivo's ASP (average selling price) in India has risen by 11%. Mid-to-high-end models priced above $300 are becoming the new growth engine for domestic brands overseas.

Foldable screens and AI are two key drivers for Chinese brands' premium overseas expansion. Huawei uses triple-folding to establish form factor differentiation, Xiaomi leverages AI features to enhance product experience, and Honor reshapes its brand positioning with 'AI leadership.'

The next decade of smartphones has only just begun.