Who is really hyping up the iPhone Duo?

Yesterday, a friend and I were chatting about foldable screens, and the conversation naturally turned to Apple's newly released iPhone Duo. Neither of us are typical Apple fanatics, nor are we tech benchmark enthusiasts. When it comes to choosing digital devices, we prioritize product experience and practicality.

My friend sang its praises, stating that its engineering was exceptionally refined, with nearly imperceptible crease control. He considered it one of Apple's few genuinely sincere works in recent years.

I remained neutral. Apple's software and hardware ecosystem is still a leader in the industry, but without hands-on experience, the credibility of any review is questionable.

So, I made a special trip to the Apple Store in Sanlitun. The staff mentioned that the iPhone Duo would only be available for display in the store on October 23, its official launch date.

I noticed that Apple has deliberately extended the "futures" delivery timeline. Over the past five years, its fall flagship releases have typically had a 3-day gap between announcement and pre-sale, and about 10 days to reach the market. The iPhone Duo has stretched these intervals to 36 and 43 days, respectively.

In other words, this phone is still a "future" product, yet its hype has already exploded. Someone listed it for 99,000 yuan on Xianyu, a second-hand platform. DeWu, another platform, saw an actual transaction at 49,999 yuan, and JD.com pre-orders exceeded one million.

Before the product even reaches consumers, it has already completed a full market cycle in certain channels.

I also observed two details. First, there were fewer scalpers outside the Sanlitun store compared to previous years, and they were less obtrusive. As I walked past, one simply asked, "Want a phone?" and then ignored me.

Second, three days after the iPhone 18 Pro series went on sale, my social media feed, which would typically be inundated with purchase posts, remained unusually calm this year. On third-party e-commerce platforms, the price of the iPhone 18 Pro dropped below its launch price immediately, and the models were not as scarce as in previous years.

Is Apple becoming mediocre, or are consumers becoming more rational? This raises a question: Who is really hyping up the iPhone Duo?

In fact, Apple has been "teasing" foldable phones for years. Renowned Apple leaker Mark Gurman revealed that around 2020, after a trip to Asia, Tim Cook showed "unusual enthusiasm" for foldable screens.

Having witnessed the growing popularity of foldable devices from brands like Samsung and Huawei in China and other Asian regions, Cook returned to the U.S. convinced that Apple "must make a move in this space" and pushed the company to accelerate the development of a foldable iPhone.

By the time the iPhone Duo was announced, the foldable market had already been nurtured by competitors for seven years and was largely mature. Take the two leading brands: Huawei captured 71.8% of China's foldable market in 2025, with its Pura X Max shipping over 1.2 million units in four months. Samsung maintained its global lead with around a 40% share.

Interestingly, in the days following the Duo's announcement, data showed that Huawei's Pura X Max sales surged by about 76% against the trend.

Apple's first foldable phone inadvertently boosted sales for its competitors.

Historically, every time Apple entered a category—Pod, iPhone, iPad, Watch, AirPods—it matured or even redefined the market.

With foldables, the opposite happened. Apple watched competitors iterate over seven years to pave the way before jumping in to reap the rewards.

When Apple no longer "redefines" products, its brand premium must be "reweighed." The iPhone Duo, priced as the "most expensive ever," leaves unclear how much of its value comes from product strength, brand power, or scalper-inflated bubbles.

What is certain is that everyone shares a common expectation: they're waiting for Apple to remove the "niche" label from foldables and reprice the category. Major players like Samsung, Huawei, and Honor fear yet hope for Apple's entry—without its "seal of approval," foldables won't go mainstream. Apple's supply chain awaits new orders, brokers seek fresh narratives, scalpers hope for another profit wave, and users likely want a social status symbol.

The iPhone Duo, "eagerly anticipated" by all, has become a scarce asset. Its pricing mechanism and product maturity inevitably attract scalpers, much like Moutai liquor, Hermès bags, or concert tickets.

In this context, scalpers are essentially price shadows. If Apple doesn't capture the premium, scalpers will.

For years, phone makers have maintained a murky relationship with scalpers. But this time, Apple needs them more than ever to orchestrate a high-profile hype campaign for free.

Apple's new CEO, John Ternus, made his debut in the early hours of September 10. The "legacy" Cook left him would be a miracle at any other company—but it also came with pitfalls.

For instance, hardware innovation has dulled. The Vision Pro's high pricing underperformed expectations. A decade-long car project burned billions without a splash. The HomePod remained a niche product despite years of tweaking.

Apple's growth narrative has peaked. Its $4 trillion market cap is tied to "sustained high growth" expectations, but the global consumer electronics market is fully saturated, and Apple has yet to find a new growth engine.

Ternus desperately needs a sure win to establish himself, and the iPhone Duo is his only bet. To some extent, "scalpers' frenzied speculation has become Apple's cheapest marketing"—not just a joke, but likely a strategic choice for Ternus's first financial report.

Meanwhile, Ternus is adding "flavor" to his persona. He invoked Steve Jobs' philosophy of "technology intersecting with humanity" to package the iPhone Duo, but the Apple Pencil support plan, which contradicted Jobs' ideals, ultimately failed. This crack reveals Apple's anxiety over innovation narratives.

Moreover, the iPhone Duo isn't invincible. To reduce thickness, Apple sacrificed the telephoto lens—the first iPhone to do so since 2019—and removed Face ID for the first time since the iPhone X. The flagship model brought back side-mounted fingerprint recognition, a solution previously criticized when adopted by competitors. Even MagSafe was abandoned.

How long the hype lasts will ultimately depend on the product and experience. According to Jiemian News, citing Foxconn supply chain sources, the iPhone Duo's initial production yield rate is just over 60%. Current issues focus on body structure and tolerance fit, with stability likely taking 6–12 months. Production awaits Apple's decision on adjusting quality standards.

At this stage, Apple needs an external force to create "reasons to buy." Scalper-driven premiums transform the iPhone Duo's scarcity from "demand overflow" into a "patch for Apple's innovation narrative."

But this is a tightrope walk. The iPhone X was once hyped to 20,000 yuan by scalpers but collapsed within a week of launch.

Ternus's debut work. Source: Livestream screenshot

More critically, Apple's pricing power in the supply chain is slipping. Cook prided himself on supply chain management, but this approach faltered with the iPhone Duo. For example, Apple accepted a near-doubling of Kioxia's NAND prices in February and reportedly signed a 3–5-year contract in September with no price cap.

ChangXin Storage was even more direct: its capacity is locked by Huawei, Xiaomi, and other local clients until 2027. When Apple sought lower LPDDR5X prices, it was flatly rejected, with pricing held no lower than Samsung and SK Hynix.

Consumer-side price hikes coupled with supply-chain concessions are unprecedented for Apple.

During the iPhone X era, Apple used products to create hype; with Vision Pro, it used pricing; this time, its hype tactics are weaker, and scalpers play a bigger role.

But some things can't be hyped—including Apple Intelligence (AI). As I've argued before, Apple's AI lags behind. Rooted in Cook's "hardware-first, software-conservative" R&D logic, the AI team lacks independence and iterates too slowly to keep pace with industry competition.

Siri, born 12 years before ChatGPT, became a laughingstock in the generative AI era. Apple Intelligence delayed twice, with core AI talent exiting en masse, crippling internal R&D momentum.

Consequently, the latest Chinese iOS 27 keeps AI features disabled, with Siri AI and new Apple Intelligence functions unavailable in mainland China.

Even though the iPhone Duo's introduction emphasizes "being ready for Apple Intelligence," the implication is clear: the hardware is ready, but the AI isn't.

Meanwhile, IDC projects that China's next-gen AI phone shipments will reach 147 million units in 2026, with a 53% penetration rate, surpassing non-AI phones for the first time. Some argue that phone makers have no choice—AI is the industry's only clear growth driver.

For foldables, the iPhone Duo cannot avoid the reality that AI is core to the experience. Large-screen multitasking, split-screen management, and cross-app data handling all rely on AI.

For example, Huawei's Xiao Yi recommends split-screen combinations based on user habits. Samsung's Galaxy AI breaks tasks into steps across apps. Honor and Xiaomi have embedded agents at the system level.

The iPhone Duo, however, merely offers users two screens. Cross-app workflows remain manual: split-screen requires manual adjustment, content must be copied and pasted, with no scheduling or agents to automate cross-app tasks.

This creates an awkward situation for iPhone Duo users: all other foldables ship with AI, while Apple's foldable waits for AI. While competitors deliver a "half-workstation," the iPhone Duo remains just two screens.

In my view, the iPhone Duo, arriving late on competitors' shoulders, is indeed an excellent product. But its value to Apple and the industry doesn't rival the iPhone X.

Scalper hype will fade. What remains for Apple then? A "certificate of qualification" for the foldable race, or an "admission ticket" to the AI era?

As Huawei, Samsung, and Xiaomi use AI to redefine foldable experiences, how long can Apple's "dual-screen" story last? Apple itself may not have an answer.

References: Tang Chen, "Cook Steps Back, and Ternus Inherits an Apple That's Too Hot to Handle"