October 23 could be dubbed a “Wild Friday”—the Roewe D7 (featuring the Doubao cockpit and Momenta R7, with over 40,000 pre-orders), Dongfeng Fengshen L8+ (with Tianyuan Intelligent Driving T800), Arcfox Alpha S5/T5 (boasting 192-line LiDAR, 800V architecture, a CLTC range of 750km, and 5C ultra-fast charging), Firefly Long-Range Edition (60kWh, CLTC 560km range), new Geely Boyue (GEEA3.0 + Flyme Auto 2.5), new Tank 500 (Danxia Red + Coffee Pilot 4.0), and Changan LieShou K70 all debuted on the same day. These models spanned pure electric, extended-range, plug-in hybrid, and traditional fuel-powered vehicles, with prices ranging from the 80,000-yuan range to the 300,000-yuan range. The day before, the Jetta M6 had already pushed the price of a mid-size pure electric sedan down to the 80,800-99,800 yuan range. With daily price fluctuations and multiple launches each week, the word “competition” has become a constant theme in every livestream.

How Dense Will New Car Releases Be in 2026? 576 Models in Six Months, Over 1,000 Expected for the Full Year

Data from a certain automotive ranking platform reveals that in the first half of 2026, a cumulative total of 576 new car models (involving 1,731 variants) were launched in China, averaging over 3.3 models per day and reaching a near-three-year peak. Among them, 352 were new energy models, with a penetration rate of 61.11%, while 224 were fuel-powered models, accounting for 38.89%. He Zhiqi from BYD bluntly stated that 542 new models had been launched from January to May, averaging 3.6 models per day, calling it “completely insane.”

In terms of launch pace, July 16 witnessed a “Wild Thursday” where six brands unveiled seven models in just 2.5 hours. On April 22, over 10 models were launched in a single day, and on October 23, another seven models were added. Extrapolating from the first-half pace, over 900 new car models will have been launched in the first 10 months of the year, with over 1,000 expected for the full year without a doubt. Compared to the approximately 1,200 models launched in 2025, the density of new releases will only continue to rise.

How Chilly Is the Terminal Market? Retail Sales Drop by Nearly 30%, with High Wholesale and Inventory Levels

In stark contrast to the flurry of new car launches is the slowdown at the retail level. The China Passenger Car Association expects retail sales of narrowly defined passenger vehicles to reach approximately 1.6 million units in October, down 28.9% year-on-year and slightly down 1.1% month-on-month. New energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 1.07 million units, with a penetration rate of 66.9%.

More critically, a structural gap exists: From October 1-18, manufacturers wholesaled 853,000 units, down 20% year-on-year, while retail sales were only 789,000 units, down 26% year-on-year. Wholesale volumes continue to exceed retail sales, leading to a buildup of inventory. Cumulative retail sales for the first three quarters are already down 22% year-on-year, and automotive retail sales in September were down 21.2% year-on-year.

The dealership side is already suffering: 81.9% of dealers are experiencing price inversions, with new car gross margins at -25.5%, resulting in an average loss of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan per vehicle. Nearly 5,000 4S stores exited the network in 2025, and another approximately 500 are expected to exit in the first quarter of 2026.

How Aggressive Are Terminal Price Cuts? Luxury Brands Under Siege, Profits Evaporating

To boost sales, automakers are slashing prices. From January to May, 77 passenger vehicle models initiated price cuts, with an average reduction of 13.1% across all categories. New energy vehicle prices dropped by approximately 31,000 yuan on average, while fuel-powered vehicle prices dropped by approximately 33,000 yuan. Nearly 70 models across the industry engaged in fierce price competition, with some fuel-powered vehicles seeing reductions of up to 14.3%.

The Audi A7L saw a direct price cut of 155,900 yuan, the Q6 was reduced by 187,800 yuan, and the BMW 7 Series offered discounts of approximately 200,000 yuan. The headline “Buy a Land Rover for 160,000 yuan” went viral.

The cost is evaporating profits: From January to May, the automotive industry's profit margin was only 3.4%, far below the 6.9% in 2023, with the vehicle manufacturing segment falling to 1.5%, a decade-low.

Chaos of Hastily Launched Vehicles: Brake Pedals Snap After 18 Months of Development

“Hastily launched vehicles” refer to models rushed to market with overly compressed development cycles and reduced real-world testing. The traditional 36-60 month development period for fuel-powered vehicles has been compressed to 18 months or even 12 months, with test mileage cut from 5 million kilometers to 1 million kilometers. Some projects rely on simulations for 80% of testing, with only 20% real-world testing.

On October 10, a draft proposal from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments directly addressed this chaos, requiring reliability verification mileage of no less than 30,000 kilometers, environmental adaptability testing of at least one year (including “two winters and one summer”), and simulations only as a supplement.

The consequences of hastily launched vehicles are already apparent. One automaker tested door handles 10,000 times but only conducted 2,000 physical tests. The Chery Omoda 5 experienced a rear axle longitudinal arm tear and rear axle detachment in Malaysia, leading to a recall of 8,878 units. A million-yuan MPV, the Zunjie V800, saw its brake pedal bracket snap three times during emergency braking at 100 km/h, causing JAC's stock price to plummet.

Li Fenggang, general manager of Beijing Hyundai, bluntly stated, “Many necessary experiments weren't conducted, and consumers have become test drivers.” While OTA updates can patch software issues, hardware defects in brakes, chassis, and other components cannot be remotely fixed—buyers are becoming unwitting test subjects, posing real risks.

Will the Wounds of Intense Competition Change China’s Domestic Automotive Market by 2027?

Intense competition harms all three parties: automakers (with a profit margin of 3.4%), dealers (bleeding and exiting the network), and workers and buyers (becoming test subjects). Regulatory crackdowns have begun, with new regulations and CAAM initiatives slamming the brakes on the runaway industry. Cui Dongshu called the 30,000-kilometer reliability requirement a “coming-of-age ritual” for new energy vehicles.

In 2027, export tax rebates will drop from 13% to 9% in April, guiding automakers toward brand building and localized operations to curb overseas low-price competition. Hua'an Securities predicts a marginal repair of the price system, shifting from “price cuts for volume” to “average price increases and reduced terminal discounts.”

Hastily launched vehicles are expected to be curbed by regulations—real-world testing will become a hard requirement, and simulations cannot substitute. The frequent “hastily launched” new models will objectively slow down. However, given the competition for market share, the number of new models will remain high, but the focus will shift from quantity and speed to quality and verification. The competition won't stop, but consumers will finally become test subjects less often.