In the mobile phone industry, there's a widely acknowledged adage: 'Early birds get the worm; latecomers get a discount.'

As time elapses following a phone's launch, its price is destined to decline, enabling consumers to snap it up at a more affordable rate. Those who wait strategically often come out on top.

For instance, when considering an Apple phone purchase, many individuals patiently await major sales events such as Double 11 or 618 to secure a better deal.

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However, to be candid, the circumstances this year and the next are somewhat exceptional. I advise that if you've set your sights on a particular phone, make the purchase this year. It's possible that prices won't be lower next year or the following, and they might even experience a substantial increase.

It may seem inconceivable to many that electronics could become pricier, but there are indeed three significant factors that could drive up phone prices next year.

The first major factor is the potential withdrawal of national subsidies.

This year, a 15% national subsidy is available for digital products like phones, with a maximum discount of 500 yuan. Phones priced above 6000 yuan are excluded from this benefit. Consequently, many phones enjoy an immediate 500-yuan subsidy upon release, effectively reducing their price by that amount.

Should the national subsidy be discontinued next year, phones priced at 3333 yuan or higher will effectively see a 500-yuan price hike. Phone manufacturers are unlikely to absorb this cost themselves, as phone profits are already transparent and not substantial enough to cover such an expense.

The second major factor is the AI craze driving up wafer prices.

While mature-process wafers may not experience price increases and could even engage in price wars due to fierce competition, advanced-process wafers are in high demand.

Nvidia requires a substantial quantity, and nearly all advanced-process wafers are under the control of TSMC, giving TSMC the final say in pricing. Media reports already indicate that TSMC will raise prices for 3nm chips next year, and 2nm chips are already commanding a premium.

Smartphone SoCs (System on Chips) utilize advanced processes, not mature ones, so chip price increases are inevitable, leading to higher production costs.

The third major factor is the significant price surge in memory chips.

Memory chip prices have already soared by at least 200-300% this year. For example, DDR4 chips have witnessed a price increase of over 600%, DDR5 by over 200%, and NAND by over 200%.

A phone necessitates a substantial amount of DDR memory and NAND flash storage. Next year, the cost of these memory chips is anticipated to rise by 300-500 yuan compared to the previous year, a cost that phone manufacturers are unlikely to shoulder alone.

Therefore, when considering chip price increases alone, with SoCs, memory, and storage chips all on the rise, the cost of a 5000-yuan flagship phone could escalate by several hundred to over a thousand yuan. Even a regular, more affordable phone will see its cost increase by several hundred yuan.

If we also take into account the 15% national subsidy, a flagship phone could become over a thousand yuan more expensive next year, and a regular phone could see a price hike of several hundred to a thousand yuan. So, if you have your eye on a phone that's priced right and you possess a national subsidy coupon, I recommend making the purchase within the year. Next year, it may not be any cheaper and could even be more expensive.