Introduction

Betting on Trump was a high-stakes gamble.

Now, Musk may have a profound understanding of the saying, "Serving a king is like serving a tiger." After investing significant material and financial resources to help Trump ascend to the presidency, he was ultimately discarded like an old tool. Who wouldn't feel furious in his shoes?

It's been a few days since their direct conflict. Judging from the current situation, Musk has deleted some posts criticizing Trump, signaling a desire for reconciliation. However, the powerful US President has publicly stated that he has no plans to communicate with Musk in the near future, remarking, "I'm too busy. I don't intend to talk to him." He even declared, "Our relationship is over."

Does this sound like a couple in their honeymoon phase suddenly parting ways? Each word is filled with sorrow, melodrama, and drama.

Musk accompanied Trump through a long election campaign, but their relationship crumbled amidst the undercurrents of the White House. This proves that "in this world, no relationship is unbreakable." Looking back at Musk's initial decision to recklessly "bet" on Trump, it feels like a "sucker's bet." He thought he could reap substantial dividends and resources for himself and his companies, only to find out in the end that they were all bottomless pits.

Especially for Tesla, which was already struggling, this feels like pouring salt on an unhealed wound.

01 When the World's Richest Man Became a Sucker

On June 5, local time in the United States, due to a public confrontation between its leader and the US President, Tesla's stock price plummeted by an astonishing 14% overnight, with its market value shrinking by over $180 billion, equivalent to RMB 1.3 trillion.

Undoubtedly, Musk's "war" with Trump has caused Wall Street to have huge doubts and uncertainties about the future of this new energy vehicle company.

The root cause of their sudden breakdown in friendship can be traced back to Trump's insistence on a large-scale tax and spending bill, which profoundly affected Musk's "pie." Once this policy is passed, it may eliminate the tax credit of up to $7,500 per vehicle for some Tesla models by the end of this year.

The timing of the subsidy phase-out is seven years earlier than originally planned. A JP Morgan analyst said, "This move will deal a major blow of $1.2 billion to Tesla's full-year profits." Looking back at a viewpoint I wrote in a previous article, "In the midst of this great change of the century, whether willing or not, since Musk all-in on Trump, Tesla has been forced onto this high-speed train that barrels ahead recklessly. In the future, where it will go is full of uncertainties. Reality is far more tricky than imagined. After all, when people go crazy, what bottom line do they have?"

This prediction is undoubtedly being fulfilled.

Rationally and objectively speaking, despite Musk's active overtures to Trump, it feels like Tesla has never received any overly effective "stimulant," apart from the showmanship relying on that red Model S in front of the White House.

On the contrary, whether at the brand level, sales level, or profit level, there have been increasingly severe declines and shocks this year. Simultaneously, during the period when the world's richest man dutifully served as the "Minister Ma," the continuous distraction of his relatively limited personal energy also had a significant impact on Tesla's operations.

Seeing this, many readers feel that Musk's unilateral efforts were not worth it. In fact, the fundamental reason he funded Trump's campaign and got involved in the political quagmire was to efficiently eliminate obstacles blocking his path to running all his companies, including Tesla. It was a high-risk gamble.

However, the current result is that he has acted as the "executioner" but has not received any compensation. This savvy world's richest man has undoubtedly been tricked hard.

Recently, I also heard another interesting analysis, "Musk and Trump are jointly staging a ploy of self-inflicted wounds. Perhaps, soon after, they will reach a reconciliation and use actions to create a shockwave effect." But in my heart, I still believe that the world's richest man has become a sucker.

02 Tesla Has Completely Entered a Trough

Last month, when Musk officially announced his resignation to return home and refocus his energy on Tesla, it was expected that with the return of the helmsman, this American new energy vehicle company would bounce back and enter a growth curve.

However, contrary to expectations, after a war of words and the impact of policies, the outlook has once again become uncertain.

If trying to summarize Tesla's current global situation in one sentence, my answer is, "The European market is sluggish, the US market is volatile, and the Chinese market is filled with strong competitors."

It must be admitted that the first two segments are trying to change their awkward current situation, but due to "unfavorable timing, unfavorable conditions, and disharmony among people," there is not much possibility in the short term.

Given this background, if Tesla wants to maintain its dignity this year, such as not experiencing another year-on-year decline in cumulative sales and ultimately achieving the promised 20%-30% upturn against the trend, the Chinese market has become its "make-or-break" factor that cannot be lost.

However, judging from the May performance report of this segment alone, it still dealt a heavy blow to this American new energy vehicle company. In the past 31 days, including exports, Tesla sold a total of 61,662 new vehicles in China. Although considering that only the refreshed Model 3 and refreshed Model Y are available for sale, the efficiency per vehicle is not bad and even somewhat terrifying, there is still a 15% decline compared to last year.

More severely, this is the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline for Tesla in the Chinese market. Obviously, the obvious trend is there.

Further analyzing, the refreshed Model 3 is essentially being pulled down from its pedestal by many domestic pure electric sedans led by Xiaomi SU7.

On the other hand, the refreshed Model Y has indeed held onto its position as the "sales champion" temporarily after enduring round after round of siege. However, the problem is that no one knows how long this brutal and bloody war of attrition will last. As competitors bite madly, it will inevitably reveal flaws and lose ground sooner or later.

Moreover, it should be noted that Xiaomi's YU7, the biggest competitor in July, is about to enter the market. Leading the charge in the domestic pure electric SUV camp, they will surely try every means to tear a chunk off the refreshed Model Y.

Without exaggeration, once this product fails in sales, the impact on Tesla will undoubtedly be devastating.

Perhaps for this reason, as early as March this year, there were reports that Tesla was developing a "low-priced version of the Model Y," led by the Chinese R&D team, aiming to achieve cost control by streamlining configurations while retaining core functions such as the current battery, power, and chassis.

The development of this product adopts an internal R&D model called "depop," which focuses on quickly launching new models through modular adjustments to reduce costs without changing core performance.

It's worth noting that the code name of this new car breaks Tesla's previous naming rules and adopts a combination of letters and numbers for the first time, demonstrating Tesla's emphasis on the Chinese market.

The launch date of the new car has not been determined, and the release rhythm will depend on the sales performance of the refreshed Model Y. If it fails to meet expectations, the "low-priced version of the Model Y" may enter the market earlier in the second half of this year.

In short, it's still the same principle, "The Chinese market cannot be lost." Whether it's official price reductions or new product launches, Tesla must do its utmost to ensure the stability of its foundation, especially at a time when the European market is sluggish and the US market is volatile.

As I write this, the article is gradually approaching its conclusion. Finally, I want to say, "I don't know if the relationship between Musk and Trump can be repaired, but I know that Tesla's trough period is much longer than imagined." Of course, the temporary stagnation of this "great demon" has given Chinese new energy vehicle companies a bigger window to rush into the world. Seize the hard-won opportunity and just do it...

Editor in charge: Yang Jing, Editor: He Zengrong