Author | Shuyan | For more financial insights | BT Finance Data Pass The main article comprises 2,684 characters and is estimated to require 9 minutes for reading.

During the National Day holidays, while some consumers were busy filling their shopping carts with airline tickets and hotel bookings, others were opting for new smartphones, fitness trackers, and refrigerators.

Data from value-added tax invoices released by the State Taxation Administration revealed that during the National Day holidays, sales revenue from communication devices, including mobile phones and fitness trackers, surged by 119.8% year-on-year. Home appliances and audio-visual equipment sales rose by 40.1%, while retail sales of kitchen and bathroom fixtures increased by 52.3%.

The more-than-doubling of revenue from communication devices might initially suggest a widespread upgrade in smartphones.

However, a "sales revenue growth of 119.8%" does not equate directly to a "119.8% increase in smartphone sales volume." The key question remains: Was this revenue surge due to selling more units, higher pricing, or a concentration of consumer upgrades originally planned for later dates during the holiday?

For average households, the focus should not be solely on the industry's buoyancy but on how much more affordable upgrades have become.

01 119.8%: More Than Just Sales Volume

Firstly, let's clarify the statistical context.

The figures are based on sales revenue from value-added tax invoices, not smartphone activations, shipments, or order volumes. Sales revenue can be broadly defined as:

Sales Revenue = Sales Volume × Average Transaction Price.

An increase in sales volume or consumers opting for pricier products will boost revenue. Additionally, if devices like fitness trackers, alongside mobile phones, experience better sales, the overall revenue from communication devices will also rise.

For instance, if 100 mobile phones were sold last year at an average price of 3,000 yuan each, generating 300,000 yuan in revenue. This year, even if only 150 units are sold but the average transaction price climbs to 4,400 yuan, the revenue would reach 660,000 yuan, marking a 120% increase.

Thus, while 119.8% indicates robust digital consumption during the holidays, it alone does not confirm a doubling in smartphone sales volume.

The only definitive takeaway from this data is that during the National Day holidays, spending on products like mobile phones and fitness trackers increased significantly, with growth outpacing that of home appliances and kitchen and bathroom fixtures.

02 Three Factors Driving Concentrated Upgrades During the Holiday

Why specifically during this National Day?

The State Taxation Administration cited three reasons: the pre-holiday rollout of subsidy funds for trading in old consumer goods for new ones, the concentrated launch of new digital products, and the release of pent-up demand for household upgrades during the extended holiday.

When these factors are considered together, the growth becomes more understandable.

Subsidies alleviated price concerns. Consumers who initially found new phones too expensive and planned to wait another six months saw reduced barriers to upgrading after encountering subsidies and platform discounts.

New products provided compelling reasons to purchase. Digital consumers often wait for new releases, configuration upgrades, or price adjustments. The concentrated launch of new products acted as a catalyst for hesitant demand.

The extended holiday resolved time constraints. Buying a mobile phone may seem straightforward, but selecting models, comparing memory options, migrating data, and disposing of old devices all require time. Upgrading home appliances is even more complex, involving delivery, removal of old units, installation, and after-sales service. The holiday provided an opportunity for households to tackle these tasks collectively.

Thus, the 119.8% growth represents a phased peak driven by the convergence of three forces: policies lowered prices, new products sparked interest, and the extended holiday concentrated purchasing time.

It signals activated consumer demand but does not guarantee sustained growth throughout the year.

03 Subsidy Savings May Be Offset by Upgraded Configurations

For consumers, another often-overlooked aspect is that receiving subsidies does not necessarily translate to reduced household expenditure.

For example, a consumer planning to buy a 3,000-yuan phone might save several hundred yuan through subsidies and discounts. Faced with a lower final price, they might opt for a version with more storage, higher specifications, or a premium model instead of the original option.

The result is that while subsidies reduce the price of a specific product, they may also encourage consumers to upgrade configurations.

This is not necessarily detrimental. For many, increasing storage and extending device lifespan may offer better value than simply buying a cheaper phone. The challenge lies in distinguishing between "genuine savings" and "spending more because something is slightly cheaper."

Historical policy data has shown similar patterns. After previous subsidies for new digital product purchases, weekly sales volume and revenue for phones priced under 6,000 yuan both increased, with revenue growth outpacing volume growth. This indicates that product mix, transaction prices, and configuration choices all influence final sales figures. Therefore, evaluating subsidy effectiveness requires considering not just "how much cheaper?" but also "how much more expensive was the final purchase?"

04 Why Did Phones, Home Appliances, and Kitchenware All See Growth?

The 119.8% growth in communication equipment, 40.1% in home appliances, and 52.3% in kitchenware retail were not coincidental.

These categories share common traits: high usage frequency, moderately high unit prices, and easily postponable purchasing decisions.

Consumers often make do with existing phones; refrigerators are only replaced when they can no longer cool properly; and showerheads, stoves, and water heaters are tolerated long past when upgrades would be sensible.

Such consumption does not lack demand but requires a trigger.

When subsidies, new product launches, holiday promotions, and family leisure time aligned, purchasing plans originally scattered over several months were concentrated into the National Day holidays. Malls saw increased foot traffic, platforms experienced order growth, and tax invoices reflected a jump in sales revenue.

However, for retailers, high growth does not necessarily equate to synchronized profit growth. To compete for subsidy windows, companies may invest more in promotions; some merchants must advance discounts, affecting cash flow due to slower fund recovery.

Brands face another challenge: while consumers are willing to upgrade during subsidy periods, will products remain attractive enough when subsidies weaken?

If growth relies primarily on price incentives, enthusiasm may wane after promotions end. Only if new products genuinely improve battery life, durability, AI features, or user experience can consumption transition from holiday spikes to relatively stable upgrade demand.

05 Household Upgrades: Beyond "Instant Discounts"

Faced with subsidies, discounts, gifts, trade-in deals, and interest-free installments, consumers are easily swayed by prominent "maximum savings" claims.

A more pragmatic approach involves breaking down upgrades into four considerations.

Firstly, assess the final price.

Do not just consider reductions from the official price; include platform coupons, government subsidies, store discounts, and membership benefits. Verify whether different discounts can be combined before payment.

Secondly, evaluate the actual trade-in value of old devices.

Used phone valuations depend on appearance, screen condition, battery health, and repair history. Pages display "maximum recycling prices," but final inspection prices may differ. Recycling value and subsidies should be calculated separately to avoid mistaking inherent old-device value for additional merchant discounts.

Thirdly, determine whether upgrades are truly necessary.

If spending 1,000 yuan more merely gains unused performance, subsidies might amplify impulsive buying. Upgrades like larger storage that extend device lifespan by two years offer real value.

Fourthly, consider the full usage cycle.

Phone costs should not be divided solely by upfront discounts but should account for expected lifespan, repair costs, battery replacements, system support, and warranty coverage. A 4,000-yuan phone used for four years may not be more expensive than a 3,000-yuan phone replaced every two years.

The same applies to home appliances. Saving several hundred yuan upfront may not be cost-effective if energy consumption is higher or after-sales service is more expensive.

06 After 119.8%, Sustainability of Upgrades Is Key

The doubling of communication equipment sales revenue during the holidays indicates that household upgrade demand has not disappeared but was waiting for a suitable window of price, product, and time alignment.

However, holiday data represents only a short-term snapshot.

To determine whether digital consumption has truly entered a sustained recovery phase, several indicators must continue to be observed: whether sales remain strong after the holidays, whether sales volume and revenue grow synchronously, whether average transaction prices rise significantly, whether consumers remain willing to buy after subsidies end, and whether old-device recycling and after-sales services can keep pace.

For the industry, 119.8% is an impressive scorecard; for households, it serves more as a reminder:

Just because others are upgrading en masse does not mean you must too. Truly cost-effective consumption means not chasing every discount but buying products with lower total costs that can be used for several years when needed.

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