More than two months ago, Li Bin set a Q4 target of "an average of more than 40,000 per month." One month in, NIO is already 5,754 units short. In October, NIO delivered 34,246 vehicles, down 15.2% year-on-year, ending a 31-month streak without a year-on-year decline.

Congestion in the large SUV segment has presented this new energy vehicle maker—which has staked its growth cycle on the large-car segment—with a new test: how to defend its position after having challenged for it.

Initial Target Missed, Growth Streak Ends

"We believe the market will recover somewhat in the fourth quarter this year, and we believe we will achieve average monthly deliveries of more than 40,000. This is our target." In September, at NIO's second-quarter 2026 earnings call, NIO founder, chairman and CEO Li Bin made this forecast for the fourth quarter.

However, October—the first month under Li Bin's "Q4 average of 40,000 per month" target—has already fallen short. Data recently released by NIO show that in October the company delivered 34,246 new vehicles, already 5,754 units short of the 40,000 monthly average target.

At the same time, it should be noted that this figure also declined from the same period last year. In October 2025, NIO's sales were 40,397 vehicles. With the year-on-year decline in October sales, NIO's previous record of 31 consecutive months of year-on-year sales growth has also come to an end. From March 2024 to September 2026, NIO's sales grew year-on-year for 31 months.

Breaking down the performance of NIO's three brands, the problem lies with the main NIO brand and the ONVO brand.

Data show that in October, NIO brand sales fell to a low of 18,125 units, down 14.9% month-on-month—the lowest level for the NIO brand since February this year. In the first nine months, NIO brand sales were 20,894, 15,159, 22,490, 19,024, 20,013, 21,908, 20,008, 21,174 and 21,318 units, respectively, already showing signs of insufficient momentum.

Over the same period, ONVO's performance was even less encouraging, delivering 8,383 units in October, halving year-on-year. In October 2025, ONVO sold 17,342 units.

Objectively speaking, looking at the full year, NIO's 2026 highlights remain. From January to October this year, cumulative deliveries of new vehicles reached 334,547 units, up 38.5% year-on-year, already exceeding the 326,028 units for all of 2025 and making it one of the few countertrend players in a declining passenger vehicle market this year; its cumulative growth rate is also close to the lower bound of the 40%–50% growth range mentioned by Li Bin.

But cumulative figures are a report card for the past, while a negative single month points to the present. In October, the main brand fell to a low for the year and ONVO halved year-on-year, leaving only the lower-priced Firefly to absorb incremental volume, while the overall new forces market did not contract in sync, with Leapmotor, Xiaomi and XPeng continuing to push hard. The simultaneous weakening of the main brand and ONVO affects more than simple October sales; the signal hidden within affects the long-term product structure and quality of profitability.

Competition in the Large SUV Segment Intensifies

NIO's turn to negative growth this month should be answered more from its own product lineup. NIO has clearly bet its 2026 incremental growth on large cars. At a small-scale media briefing in August 2025, Li Bin put it bluntly: "In this cycle, we will definitely prioritize large cars. Large cars make money." At the earnings call in March this year, he again set the tone for full-year sales growth with five mid-to-large and large SUVs.

October happened to be when this main line weakened simultaneously.

By brand, ONVO has three products on sale: two large SUVs, the ONVO L80 and ONVO L90, and one mid-size SUV, the ONVO L60. In October, sales of the three models were 2,139, 2,822 and 3,395 units, respectively, with no model able to achieve sales above 10,000. In 2025, when the ONVO L90 was launched, that single model alone was enough for ONVO to deliver monthly sales of more than 10,000.

In 2026, ONVO's main push is the ONVO L80. ONVO President Shen Fei once said, "The L80 is positioned as a long-term stable volume model and does not need short-term explosive sales; we will adhere to a steady and improving development rhythm." Analysis institutions' attitude toward the ONVO L80 is that "the L80's short-term monthly sales are expected to exceed 10,000 units, and later, as competitors enter the market one after another, sales will gradually fall back and stabilize at around 4,000 units per month, echoing the performance after the L90's launch."

The current results show that the ONVO L80 is far from meeting industry expectations.

Undoubtedly, this is related to the sharp intensification of competition in the large SUV segment in 2026. Research data show that the number of large SUV models on sale has increased from 24 in 2023 to about 50, and in the first half of 2026, 20 new six-seat models were launched. Experts from the China Automobile Dealers Association estimate that real annual demand in this market is about 300,000–500,000 vehicles, while potential supply has exceeded 1 million—a typical case of oversupply.

In fact, the sales trend of the NIO ES8 also clearly reflects the growing intensity of competition in China's large SUV market. It cannot be denied that the NIO ES8 is currently China's most successful large SUV product. On October 23, NIO officially announced that cumulative deliveries of the ES8 had reached 160,000 units. But going from the 150,000th to the 160,000th unit took 33 days—the first time the interval between 10,000-unit milestones exceeded one month, indicating that the ramp-up has slowed.

From the data, the sales peak of the NIO ES8 appeared in December 2025, when monthly sales reached 22,200 units. Since 2026, sales have been declining all the way. From January to October, NIO ES8 sales were 17,658, 11,271, 16,256, 13,028, 11,477, 8,968, 10,288, 11,011, 10,546 and 8,738 units, respectively.

NIO's Profitability Still Needs to Be Tested

From the overall market situation, NIO's logic of "large cars first" is not wrong; what has changed is the new players crowding into the large-car segment. In October, Xiaomi Pengcheng N90 sales reached 12,587 units, taking first place in large SUV sales (regardless of energy type) and demonstrating the impact of a new player. In the fourth quarter, NIO has no all-new model to save the day, meaning its large-car business line still faces downward pressure.

A decline in volume will directly feed into NIO's next financial report. In NIO's previously released second-quarter report, profitability remained "weak."

The financial report released on September 1 showed that NIO's second-quarter revenue was 32.137 billion yuan, up 69.1% year-on-year; comprehensive gross margin was 18.4%, and vehicle gross margin was 18.5%, a substantial improvement from the same period in 2025, but a sequential decline from 19.0% and 18.8% in the first quarter. Over the same period, its adjusted operating profit was 207 million yuan, positive for three consecutive quarters, and adjusted net profit was 26.1 million yuan.

However, under US generally accepted accounting principles, NIO's quarterly operating loss still reached 347 million yuan, with a net loss of 528 million yuan. On the day the financial report was released, NIO's Hong Kong shares fell by more than 10% at one point, indicating that the capital market's assessment of the quality of profitability is more detailed than whether the figures turn positive. And the key to NIO's high-quality profitability will undoubtedly still rest on its large-car product line represented by the NIO ES8.

Over the past year or more, NIO, with the all-new ES8, created a high-margin hit in the pure electric three-row large SUV segment above 400,000 yuan. In the large SUV segment, like Li Auto and AITO before it, it captured a large slice of the segment's dividend. But now, the number of large SUV models on sale has increased from 24 to about 50, and latecomers are entering intensively at lower prices. NIO's identity has changed from challenger to defender.

The current sales shortfall is for October, but deeper challenges in product structure and profitability have already emerged—when the large SUV segment changes from a dividend for a few into a market shared by about 50 models, whether NIO can defend the gross margin and profitability supported by large cars is the new test Li Bin must answer.