Last week, the center of gravity for A-shares continued to shift downward. The ChiNext index pulled back significantly once again, and the AI sector suffered a sharp decline. Do the people who bought into AI this year still believe in AI? That is the biggest question. In my view, those who bought AI this year are basically trend followers. After all, AI has been rising rapidly for more than two years. I will say it again: trend followers will not end up well. The A-share market is an obvious game market. If all the trend followers made money, who would be losing? We all know that in mahjong there is only one winner, and the probability of being a true winner in the A-share market is far lower than in mahjong. Those who speculate by following the trend are, frankly speaking, there to take over the bags.

Now the biggest selling pressure on ChiNext does not come from people in the market who are bearish on AI. The real bears are actually those who followed the trend and bought AI this year—the "newbies" who mock the "old-timers." These people themselves do not truly believe in AI; they just want to make quick money. The real test of these people's "faith" comes when there is a major drop. Therefore, the real bears are actually those who bought tech earlier this year and lost their composure when the big drop came. These people who bought at this year's highs and are now selling in batches are the biggest selling pressure, and they are the ones who shouted the loudest before.

Since the market reached a phased peak in July this year, the overall bullish sentiment and capital confidence in the market have actually been continuously dissipating and have not truly coalesced. Every pullback after a small rebound is essentially a process of unsteady held funds leaving the market.

Personal View

I maintain my previous core judgment unchanged: the A-share market as a whole is still in the process of mid-term bottom-finding. I do not know where the bottom is either; I only look at whether my stocks have fallen to a value level.

After multiple rounds of volatile declines, the holding confidence of this part of the trend-following funds has continued to collapse. The current core process of the market is to wash out unsteady long funds round after round: each rebound attracts bottom-fishing funds to enter, and the subsequent decline again eliminates a batch of investors with unsteady holdings.

Of course, the overall market decline is already very sufficient. I personally still remain patient and wait for the best entry window. At present, my second-round layout price level has not yet been reached, and I still firmly wait for the target level—for example, the layout opportunity below 200 yuan in CATL.

My lithium battery investment portfolio is as follows:

Table: Details of lithium battery investment portfolio holdings

Overall, the current market is mainly wait-and-see. Patiently wait for market sentiment to grind out a bottom, and then make batch layout.

Disclaimer: This article is only a personal investment record and reflection and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves risks; enter the market with caution. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only case sharing and do not represent recommendations to buy or sell. Operate accordingly at your own risk.