On November 3, Apple reported financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 (calendar Q3 2026), ended September 26, 2026. Total revenue came in at $114.477 billion, up 11.7% year-over-year, with net profit of $30.711 billion, up 11.8%.

John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook, has managed a relatively smooth transition and steadied the ship. Yet Apple's after-hours stock still slipped 4.53% following the earnings release (data as of press time). Given that Ternus only took the reins in September, his imprint on Apple may not become clear for some time.

Measured against previous years, Apple showed both strengths and weaknesses this quarter.

The weakness: after memory prices climbed, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max followed suit, with starting prices jumping by 1,000 yuan outright.

The strength: Apple was hardly alone in absorbing the memory price hike. Huawei, Xiaomi, OnePlus, vivo, OPPO and others were hit just as hard—and they also had to contend with rising chip costs. As a result, flagship prices across the board rose sharply. Phones that once cost two to three thousand yuan now go for four to five thousand, and flagships that previously topped five thousand yuan now sell for seven to eight thousand. Against that backdrop, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max actually look like remarkably good value.

The "more for the same price" philosophy of the iPhone 17 series has been completely reversed on the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, whose starting prices have climbed steadily.

Apple also reshuffled its autumn release schedule this year. Its headline model, the foldable iPhone Duo, was pushed to pre-sale on October 16, with official sales only on October 23. The entry-level iPhone 18 and iPhone 18 Plus were scrapped entirely. The September new models—iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max—opened pre-orders on September 12 and went on sale September 18.

Entry-level models matter to Apple, and everyone knows it. They are what let Apple go head-to-head with Huawei, Xiaomi, OnePlus, vivo and OPPO. Last year's "more for the same price" strategy on the iPhone 17 converted plenty of users of other brands into iPhone owners. Now Apple has simply canceled the entry-level line. Doesn't it still want those switchers?

The truth is, Apple had little choice. Everything had to give way to its first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo.

In Q3 2026, dragged down by the missing entry-level models, iPhone shipments also declined. IDC data shows global iPhone shipments of 57.3 million units in Q3 2026, down 4% year-over-year—well below the industry average. Total global smartphone shipments for the quarter were 255.3 million units, down 22% year-over-year.

Q3 offered few selling days for new iPhone models. Apple trained its sights on Q4, ceding the merely adequate to the iPhone 18 Pro and reserving the spotlight for the iPhone Duo. Q3 was only ever meant to be a steady bridge; Q4 is the main event. The iPhone Duo matters because:

1. It is Apple's first foldable. Its market performance will directly shape Apple's position in the foldable segment.

2. It carries a higher price tag. Measured against a 5,999-yuan entry-level iPhone, a single iPhone Duo buys almost 2.67 base-model iPhones. The base model might appear to compete with the Duo, but if its very existence lures users toward cheaper iPhones instead, Apple loses out badly.

3. It underpins Apple's revenue and net profit. In Q3 2026, Apple's net profit margin was essentially flat year-over-year at around 26.8%. Outsiders may credit the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max for Apple's performance this quarter, but only the iPhone Duo's Q4 results will show whether Apple can truly deliver this time.

As for the unremarkable iPhone 18 Pro, why isn't Apple worried? Its real job is a smooth handoff—it only needs to avoid being notably bad. Apple's track record speaks for itself: across the iPhone 11, 12, 13, 14 and beyond, outside reviews have been decidedly lukewarm, even faintly dismissive—"lacking innovation," "same as the old one," "ugly," and so on. For any other brand, poor word of mouth would surely dent sales, but with Apple the rule doesn't hold. Every year people say the new iPhones aren't good and the lines outside Apple Stores are short, and every year the earnings report still "hits new highs."

In a word: when it comes to iPhones, those who were going to buy one will buy one—mediocre and uninspired or not.

Q3 2026 proved the pattern once again. The iPhone 18 Pro was the first to "break below its issue price," and as Double 11 approached, prices on the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max slid further. With a trade-in program, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max effectively saw no price increase over the previous generation.

In China, Apple's revenue is still climbing. The earnings report shows Greater China revenue of $17.539 billion in Q3 2026, compared with $14.493 billion a year earlier—up 21% year-over-year.

So despite all the grumbling whenever a new iPhone launches, when it comes time to actually buy, people don't hold back. IDC data shows the iPhone accounted for 17.8% of China's smartphone market in Q3 2026, down 4.3% year-over-year, ranking second overall behind only Huawei. The iPhone's decline was far milder than that of the other major phone makers.

As for the iPhone Duo, two worrisome factors currently loom:

First, early reputation. Quite a few reports have flagged screen issues with the iPhone Duo. Whether these are isolated cases or widespread remains unknown. If problems are extensive, they will still deter people planning to buy the Duo down the road.

Second, production capacity. If the iPhone Duo remains in tight supply, it will clearly weigh on Apple's revenue and net profit. There has been no sign of iPhone Duo price markups, but on the Apple Store, JD.com, Taobao and other platforms, the estimated shipping date for the iPhone Duo is still January 22, 2027—a rather long wait.

This year every phone maker faces memory price increases, driving new phone prices steadily upward. The price gap between them and the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max is not large. Fortunately, Apple held back its entry-level models this time; otherwise, other manufacturers' flagship prices might have ended up far above Apple's.

Price hikes affect every phone maker, and users may stretch out their replacement cycles. Here's a very concrete reality: a 512GB or 1TB model that cost a certain amount in the past would run at least 2,000 yuan more for the same flagship this year. In other words, memory price increases ultimately leave consumers footing the entire bill. Once they see that, consumers may no longer plan to upgrade at all.

Whether the iPhone Duo can truly deliver—wait for the Q4 data.

Text/Guo Jing, WeChat public account: Guo Jing's Internet Circle