Originally published by New Energy View (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan)

Full text: 2,882 words | Reading time: 7 minutes

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Over the past few years, China's auto market has served up a rather ironic truth: automakers that publicly dismissed range extenders as "technologically backwards" were anything but honest in their actions. A few years ago, only one or two companies were building range extenders; today, only one or two are not.

Range extenders were never "the best technology," but they solved users' range anxiety.

Yet the boom years for range extenders came to an end in 2026.

Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in the first half of 2026, wholesale sales of range-extender vehicles totaled 504,000 units, down 13.1% year-on-year; retail sales came in at 439,000 units, down 19.4% year-on-year. Among the three technology routes—pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and range extender—it was the only category to post declines in both wholesale and retail sales.

Figure: Wholesale sales of range-extender vehicles in June 2026

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

Interestingly, battery-swapping models now appear to stand at the opposite end of fortune's spectrum from range extenders—one rising, the other falling. Three years ago, battery swapping was still NIO's solo endeavor, and the entire industry was waiting to see it fail. By 2026, not only has Geely put real money on the table to turn NIO's battery-swapping alliance from paper into reality, but CATL has also built more than 3,200 battery-swapping stations, allowing more consumers to "instantly" solve the matter of energy replenishment.

With NIO's battery swaps exceeding 130 million, Avatr's new model spotted undergoing battery-swap testing, and CATL going full speed ahead building new stations, can we boldly predict that in the next few years, automakers without battery-swapping models will be as rare as automakers without range-extender models are today?

1. The Range-Extender Landscape Has Settled, and Very Few "Non-Followers" Remain

Anyone who follows new energy vehicles knows that range-extender vehicles did indeed enjoy a very comfortable period.

In terms of volume, only 104,800 units were sold nationwide in 2021; by 2023, sales had surged to 642,000 units, up 181% year-on-year; in 2024, they reached 1.167 million units directly, with growth of 78.7%. Range extenders became the fastest-growing segment in new energy vehicles.

Figure: Historical sales of range-extender models

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

Li Auto relied on a single model, the Li ONE, to dominate alone for several years; AITO M5 and M7 established themselves in the high-end segment as soon as they entered; Leapmotor and Deepal followed to grab a share of the pie. Range extenders became the "fastest shortcut to profitability" for new forces.

In those years, the logic behind making range extenders was simple and the reasons sufficient. First, batteries were expensive, and a range extender's battery pack was only one-third to one-half that of a pure electric vehicle, naturally lowering costs by tens of thousands of yuan. Second, users were afraid of queuing to charge, and carrying a fuel tank added a layer of reassurance.

But by 2026, squeezing into the range-extender track again makes it hard to secure a decent position, because the "advantages" that supported range-extender sales have gradually turned into "disadvantages." The phrase "no range anxiety" increasingly sounds like an outdated almanac. Public data shows that the number of vehicle series pouring into the range-extender track surged from 50 to 85, and brands expanded from 24 to 38, yet average sales per model were halved from 10,700 units to 4,600 units—a decline of 56.5%.

Let's take an example. Of the more than 40,000 vehicles Li Auto delivered in May 2025, almost all were range extenders. One year later, in May 2026, pure electric models already accounted for the majority of Li Auto's sales, with only about 10,000 range-extender vehicles left.

Figure: Li Auto SUV

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

Of course, this does not mean range-extender vehicles are going to exit the stage of history; it is merely shifting from rapid growth to structural contraction. XPeng and Xiaomi are relatively late entrants and have also achieved good sales results, while Volkswagen, Buick, Ford, and Toyota have also put range extenders into their product plans for 2026 to 2027.

Those not making range extenders can be counted on one hand. Among independent brands, only NIO and Great Wall remain: NIO sticks to pure electric battery swapping, while Great Wall sticks to Hi4 plug-in hybrids. Mu Feng publicly said it "resolutely will not make range extenders," and Li Bin also said the range-extender market no longer has any boom to enjoy. Looking globally, Tesla does not touch them either. Apart from these, it is almost impossible to find a mainstream automaker's product line without any range-extender option.

The essence of range extenders was never a technology debate; it was a fill-in-the-blank question in the product matrix. Now that almost all mainstream automakers have filled in this question, its value as a differentiated selling point has dropped to zero.

Clearly, for automakers to survive in an increasingly competitive stock market, they must find a new breakthrough point.

2. From Passenger Vehicles to Commercial Vehicles, Battery Swapping Is Gaining Strong Momentum

Battery swapping undoubtedly plays such a role. Three years ago, it was still NIO's lone-wolf story; now it has become an infrastructure race across brands and scenarios.

In fact, NIO's persistence and achievements in battery swapping are there for all to see. On May 20, 2018, NIO's first battery-swapping station officially began operation in Shenzhen Nanshan Science and Technology Park, and NIO's first battery swap also took place on the same day. By November 3, 2026, NIO's cumulative battery swaps exceeded 130 million, with 4,236 battery-swapping stations nationwide—averaging one vehicle leaving fully charged every 0.77 seconds.

Figure: NIO battery-swapping stations nationwide

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

The numbers are rising, but NIO alone cannot support the entire battery-swapping business. The NIO battery-swapping alliance, discussed for three years, finally made substantive progress only after Geely contributed assets plus cash for equity.

What truly turned battery swapping from an "experience label" into an "industry option" is CATL making batteries into standardized components.

As of the end of September 2026, 2,520 Chocolate battery-swapping stations had been built, covering 200 cities, cooperating with 11 automakers, 18 brands, and 25 models, with a year-end target of 3,000 stations and a long-term plan of 30,000 stations. And just recently, CATL's Chocolate battery-swapping stations achieved full coverage across Hainan Island, with 48 Chocolate battery-swapping stations networked across the island, covering 11 cities and counties across the province, and Hainan's total scale is expected to reach 54 stations by the end of the year.

Figure: Chocolate battery-swapping station

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

The reason so many automakers are willing to cooperate with CATL is actually simple and practical. Battery-swapping stations, batteries, assets, and even after-sales are all borne by CATL; they only need to adapt the chassis, and the "battery swapping" label can be considered added, thus creating differentiated competition.

For example, for the Arcfox Beta S3 battery-swap version, the battery rental version starts at 59,800 yuan, pre-sale orders exceed 30,000 units, and the battery-swap version accounts for 76%—far exceeding the team's expectations. In October, BAIC even signed a million-unit-level battery-swapping cooperation agreement with CATL, opening its dealer network directly to Chocolate stations and precisely building stations around stores.

Figure: Arcfox Beta S3 battery-swap version

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

In addition, for second- and third-tier brands, they cannot compete with top players on ultra-fast charging power, nor can they afford to burn money building their own networks, so battery swapping becomes a cost-controllable differentiated option.

Turning to commercial vehicles, the economics of battery swapping run even faster than for passenger vehicles.

As long as the wheels keep turning and battery-swap frequency is high, fixed costs are spread thin, and that is solid revenue. Therefore, battery swapping is transforming from an "experience bonus" for passenger vehicles into a real production tool in operational scenarios.

In September 2026, the monthly penetration rate of domestic electric heavy trucks reached 50.28%, while the annual new electrification rate in short-haul scenarios—where new energy heavy trucks have the highest penetration—reached 80%. CATL's Qiji battery-swapping ecosystem has brought in 14 partners for joint construction, with the first batch of signed projects covering 13,000 vehicles. China Post, SF Express, STO Express, and Hunan Steel are all on the list.

According to the latest plan, CATL will build 900 Qiji battery-swapping stations by the end of this year, creating a 1.5-hour trunk-line energy replenishment circle; by 2027, it will build 2,000 stations to achieve full coverage of the national highway trunk network; the long-term ultimate goal is to deploy 10,000 battery-swapping stations, making electric heavy trucks the mainstream choice for China's trunk logistics.

3. The Advantages of Battery Swapping Need No Elaboration; Will It Become the Next Growth Driver?

The benefits of battery swapping for ordinary users boil down to three things: convenience, safety, and no worries about battery depreciation.

Convenience needs no explanation. While others are still plugging in, charging, unplugging, and settling payment, you have already driven dozens more kilometers or had another sleep. There is also a public calculation: for a heavy truck traveling 400 kilometers per day, the annual energy replenishment cost per vehicle with battery swapping is 130,000 yuan less than that of a diesel truck, and the total cost over three years can be reduced by more than 460,000 yuan.

As for safety and depreciation, this is a more hidden value of battery swapping compared with charging. Batteries are centrally temperature-controlled and trickle-charged in battery-swapping stations, and dozens of inspections are performed simultaneously with each swap, not missing even millimeter-level damage. Batteries with hidden risks are directly blocked from the circulation system. For example, NIO has extended battery life to 12 years through its battery-swapping system, achieving "vehicle and battery with the same lifespan." After vehicle-battery separation, the residual value risk of battery degradation is shifted away from users, and the tens of thousands of yuan for the battery can also be avoided at purchase.

Figure: Battery-swapping system

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

But when many people first hear about battery swapping, their first reaction is the same question: if I put my new car's battery in and swap out an old one, isn't that a loss?

This concern is natural, but it assumes a premise: that the battery is "yours." The logic of battery swapping is precisely that batteries flow within the system, not that one battery follows one vehicle from birth to death.

The battery you swap today may have been in another vehicle last month and may go to a third vehicle next month. The key is that every battery in the network has been inspected and is charged in a temperature-controlled environment; there is no mechanism for "swapping a good battery for a bad one." If the battery is rented, you do not even hold any specific battery, so the issue of "new or old" does not exist from the start.

It is worth mentioning that greater imagination space for battery swapping has also arrived.

In October 2026, Yinwang signed agreements with CATL and Times Electric Service to connect Qiankun smart driving and the Chocolate battery-swapping network at the underlying level. The vehicle judges on its own that it needs energy replenishment, finds the station itself, enters the bay itself, completes the swap in 99 seconds, and drives away itself, with no need for anyone to get out of the car throughout the process. Once smart driving embeds battery swapping into energy-replenishment decisions, battery-swapping stations will change from "the user's destination" to "a node the vehicle handles by itself."

Figure: CATL and Times Electric Service signing

Source: Internet; screenshot via New Energy View

From this perspective, range extenders took four or five years to go from minority to standard configuration, and the diffusion pace of battery swapping will only be faster, not slower.

In a few years, if a mainstream automaker's product line cannot find a single battery-swappable vehicle, it will probably become something that needs explaining—just like not having range-extender models today.

[Header image generated by AI]