Beijing, January 18 - A leaked report from Haitong International Securities, released on the 14th, outlines five predictions for 2025. Notably, the final prediction suggests that Xiaomi will acquire NIO.

This marks the first time in the industry that the possibility of NIO being acquired has been seriously discussed.

While Haitong International qualifies these "five predictions" as based on understanding and analysis of technology, operations, and competition, providing directional suggestions rather than predictions grounded in substantial evidence, the suggestion regarding Xiaomi and NIO has sparked considerable interest.

Haitong International posits that, following the acquisition, Xiaomi would expand the use of NIO's battery swapping technology, potentially opening it up to other automakers under patent protection.

Currently, neither Xiaomi nor NIO has responded to this prediction.

Additionally, Haitong International forecasts that Lixiang, Tesla (TSLA), and Xiaomi will establish a leading position in China's intelligent driving market, a projection that seemingly overlooks Huawei's presence in this space.

Haitong International's assertion that Xiaomi might acquire NIO underscores NIO's uncertain future in 2025, making it one of the industry's most talked-about topics.

According to NIO's financial reports, the company has incurred losses of approximately 5.9 billion yuan per quarter for seven consecutive quarters. Tight cash flow is a pressing issue that NIO must address.

In terms of revenue, NIO's highly anticipated second brand, Ledao, has failed to meet market expectations. NIO attributes this to production capacity constraints, a claim that seems dubious given China's vast industrial capacity.

In China, the world's largest industrial hub, production capacity issues are generally the result of deliberate control rather than actual limitations. This is evidenced by Xiaomi's automotive endeavors, which could easily ramp up production if demand warrants.

Furthermore, the ET9 unveiled at NIO DAY 2024 and Firefly, the first product of NIO's third brand, are not expected to significantly boost sales.

The public discussion around a potential NIO acquisition signifies that the company has reached a critical juncture that will shape its future. Li Bin, NIO's founder, finds himself in a similar situation to that he faced in 2019.

However, the current situation is far more complex. NIO has invested hundreds of billions of funds yet struggles to see sales growth, and the competitive landscape of the new energy vehicle market has drastically changed.

More concerningly, Li Bin's shareholding and voting rights in NIO have steadily decreased since his fundraisings in 2019. As new funds are needed, questions may arise about Li Bin's continued leadership of NIO.

Similar to Vanke, a once-leading real estate company, the possibility of delisting has been a frequent topic of public discussion this year. Recent media reports about Zhu Jiusheng being taken away by public security organs led to an early morning post on his WeChat Moments denying the rumors.

However, this is merely the beginning of what could be a tumultuous period for NIO.

If NIO secures new capital or, as Haitong International predicts, is acquired by Xiaomi, Li Bin's role may diminish significantly.

Of Haitong International's five predictions, only Xiaomi's acquisition of NIO focuses on the domestic market. The other four predictions concern the US market, including the re-listing of X after acquiring TikTok and Truth in the social media sector, and Intel's potential move to sell its fabless business to QCOM and establish ASMC in the US with fab and TSMC as a joint venture in the semiconductor industry.

In 2025, both the global and domestic landscapes will continue to undergo profound transformations.